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Conference publicationsAbstractsXVI conferenceModel of a demography in view of economic potential36 Moscowskaya Str., Kirov 610000, Russia 1 pp. (accepted)Let's consider mathematical model of a demography in view of economic potential on an example of the Kirov region. In the Kirov region, not looking at operating national projects, death rate exceeds birth rate almost twice, migratory decline in population proceeds. Therefore studying of relationships of cause and effect of dynamic system "population" is very actual. Growth of a population occurs due to birth rate and immigration, reduction because of death rate and emigrations of the population. In the constructed model influence of socio-economic factors on birth rate and death rate is considered. We shall more in detail consider immigration and emigration of the population of the Kirov region. To stop outflow of the population of able-bodied age from region and to involve immigrants, it is necessary to create favorable social and economic conditions. In particular this creation of "attractive" workplaces. The model of economic potential is connected with model of a demography through a parity of number of able-bodied population and quantity of workplaces. In work three scripts of social and economic development of the Kirov region are investigated: normal - the fixed current economic potential which is expressed in fixation on model of current quantity of workplaces; optimistic - growth of economic potential of region on the average on 3 % a year; pessimistic - decrease in economic potential on the average on 3 %. As well as it was supposed, the optimistic script predicts increase in a population of region at 40-50 thousand person by 2012. So that to stop decline in population of the Kirov region, it is necessary not only to raise birth rate and to reduce death rate, but also to create workplaces with worthy wages, worthy operating conditions and residing.
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